According to a new book entitled “Postcapitalism<\/a><\/strong>“<\/em> by Paul Mason… this is the case.<\/p>\n Personally, I adamently disagree<\/strong> with Mason\u2019s book and his premise that these “new technologies” will replace the ‘old forms\u2019 of class struggle or for that matter… that the regular and recurrent economic crises would dissipate towards a high productivity, low working day as capitalism \u2018withered away\u2019 [as he states]<\/span>.<\/p>\n Now\u00a0before I get into details here, let me state for the record that I will frequently utilize the term “Capitalism” throughout this piece. And, this should NOT be construed as a “dig” against capitalism<\/strong>. Rather, just my perception that in today’s world, the theory of “capitalism”, or let’s say the fiat\/debt-based practice of “money creation” coupled with central and fractional-reserve banking ideologies is what we have<\/strong>. This is the reality, be it\u00a0“democratic” U.S., so-called “communist” China, “socialist” Europe, etc., etc. etc.<\/p>\n This said,\u00a0I’m\u00a0encouraged to do something that I have been wanting to deal with in more detail for some time. Namely, pose the question of: what are the implications of these new technologies for capitalism?<\/strong> In particular, are robots and artificial intelligence set to take over the world of work and thus the economy in the next generation and what does this mean for jobs and living standards for people?<\/strong> Will it mean socialist utopia in our time (the end of human toil and a superabundant harmonious society)<\/span> or capitalist dystopia (more intense crises and class conflict)<\/span>?<\/p>\n It\u2019s a big subject. So let me first make a few definitions. By robots, I mean machines that can replace human labour through the use of computer programs<\/strong> that direct the movement of machine parts to carry out tasks, both simple and increasingly complex.<\/p>\n The International Federation of Robotics (IFR)<\/span> considers a machine as an industrial robot if it can be programmed to perform physical, production-related tasks without the need of a human controller. Industrial robots dramatically increase the scope for replacing human labour compared to older types of machines<\/strong>, since they reduce the need for human intervention in automated processes. Typical applications of industrial robots include assembling, dispensing, handling, processing (for instance, cutting)<\/span>, and welding \u2013 all of which are prevalent in manufacturing industries \u2013 as well as harvesting (in agriculture)<\/span> and inspecting of equipment and structures (common in power plants)<\/span>.<\/p>\n Industrial robotics has the potential to change\u00a0manufacturing<\/em>\u00a0by increasing precision and productivity without incurring higher costs. 3D printing could generate a new ecosystem of companies providing printable designs<\/strong> on the web, making everyday products endlessly customizable<\/strong>. The so-called \u2018Internet of Things\u2019 offers the possibility to connect machines and equipment to each other and to common networks, allowing for manufacturing facilities to be fully monitored and operated remotely<\/strong>. In\u00a0health care and life sciences<\/em>, data driven decision-making, which allows the collection and analysis of large datasets, is already changing R&D, clinical care, forecasting and marketing. The use of big data in health care has led to highly personalized treatments and medi\u00adcines<\/strong>. The\u00a0infrastructure<\/em>\u00a0sector<\/strong>, which had no gain in labour productivity in the last 20 years<\/strong>, could be greatly enhanced by, for example: the creation of\u00a0Intelligent Transportation Systems<\/a>, which could massively increase asset utilization; the introduction of smart grids, which could help save on power infrastructure costs and reduce the likelihood of costly outages; and efficient demand management, which could dramatically lower per-capita energy use.<\/strong><\/p>\n Which of these emerging technologies have the greatest potential to drive improvements in productivity?<\/p>\n McKinsey Global Institute (2013)<\/a>\u00a0reckons that the “technologies that matter” are technologies that have the greatest potential to deliver substantial economic impact and disruption in the next decade<\/strong>. Those that make their list are rapidly advancing (e.g. gene-sequencing technology)<\/span>; have a broad reach (e.g. mobile internet)<\/span>; have the potential to create an economic impact (e.g. advanced robotics)<\/span> and have the potential to change the status quo (e.g. energy storage technology)<\/span>.<\/p>\n MGI estimates that the economic impact<\/strong> of these technologies \u2013 derived from falls in their prices and their diffusion and improved efficiency \u2013 to be between $14 and $33 trillion per year in 2025<\/strong>, led by mobile internet, the automation of knowledge work, the internet of things and cloud technology.<\/p>\n John Lanchester<\/a> in a brilliant essay summed this up:<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cComputers have got dramatically more powerful and become so cheap that they are effectively ubiquitous. So have the sensors they use to monitor the physical world. The software they run has improved dramatically too. We are, Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue, on the verge of a new industrial revolution, one which will have as much impact on the world as the first one. Whole categories of work will be transformed by the power of computing, and in particular by the impact of robots.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Now by artificial intelligence<\/strong> (A.I.)<\/span>, I mean\u00a0machines that do not just carry out pre-programmed instructions but learn more new programmes and instruction by experience<\/strong> and by new situations. A.I. means in effect robots who learn and increase their intelligence. This could happen to the point where robots can make more robots with increasing intelligence<\/strong>. Indeed, some argue that A.I. will soon surpass the intelligence of human beings.\u00a0 This is called the “singularity”<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 the moment when human beings are no longer the most intelligent things on the planet. Moreover, robots could even develop the senses and form of human beings, thus being “sentient”<\/strong>.<\/p>\n But before we get into science (or science fiction?)<\/span>, and you\u00a0(the reader)<\/span>\u00a0fall into the trap of perceiving all this to be something off in a far away future<\/strong>, let us consider first things first. If robots and A.I. are IN FACT… fast on their way<\/strong>, will this mean a huge of loss of jobs or alternatively new sectors for employment and the need to work fewer hours<\/strong>?<\/p>\n In recent work,\u00a0Graetz and Michaels<\/a>\u00a0looked at 14 industries (mainly manufacturing industries, but also agriculture and utilities)<\/span> in 17 “developed” countries<\/strong>\u00a0(including European countries, Australia, South Korea, and the U.S.)<\/span>. They found that industrial robots increase labour productivity<\/strong>, total factor productivity<\/strong>, and wages<\/strong>. At the same time, while industrial robots had no significant effect on total hours worked, there is some evidence that they reduced the employment of low skilled workers, and, to a lesser extent, also middle skilled workers.\u00a0[Full paper\u00a0here<\/a>]<\/span><\/p>\n